Demand weakens, China Tablet 2011 welcomes

● Foreword:

In the past three years, China's flat-panel TV products have completed the “triple jump” from CRT to flat panel, LED instead of LCD, and 3D TV Internet TV. In 2010, the annual output was 118 million units, and the turnover reached a new high. The financial reports of less household electrical appliance enterprises show that the proportion of LED TVs has increased rapidly, and the industrial upgrading has been gradually completed, and the situation is very good. But while everyone is optimistic about the 2011 market, we have ushered in the "worst start" in the past three years, and China's flat-panel TV industry may experience a period of "pain."

According to the 2010 electronic information industry statistical bulletin released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China’s flat-panel TV production continued to lead the world in 2010. The color TV retention rate increased by 2% compared with 2009, and 75.5% of them were LCD TVs. LED TVs exceeded the overall LCD TV for the first time. 20%. However, since 2010, the benefits of many domestic backbone color TV companies have declined. From an international perspective, the global market competition will become more intense in 2011, trade protection will become increasingly prominent, and the price of raw materials will intensify, which will bring certain exports to China's electronic information products. influences."

In 2011, the start of China's flat-panel TV market was not very smooth. According to Zhong Yikang's sales statistics for New Year's Day holiday, the sales volume of color TV city market decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, of which LCD TV sales decreased by 18.2% year-on-year. CCFL LCD TV Sales volume decreased by 59.0% year-on-year. During the two weeks from December 27, 2010 to January 9 this year, the sales of flat-panel TVs in domestic first-class cities showed negative growth for the first time, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.6%. On the contrary, in the 2010 New Year's Day market, where the financial crisis swept the world, China's flat-panel TV industry ushered in a good start for electricity sales growth of 32.7%.

●Color TV companies have lowered their expectations

According to the author's understanding, due to the optimistic expectations for the 2011 situation, many companies have already produced a large number of products waiting for shipment in the second half of 2010. However, as far as the New Year's Day situation is concerned, the pressure on inventory has been met, so many companies Reducing expectations or simply reducing production by reducing the pressure.

Major manufacturers have lowered production plans

According to the latest DisplaySearch data, the monthly production of the top 16 color TV companies, including Korean brand Samsung and Chinese local brand Konka, is expected to fall from 18.3 million units in November 2010 to 15.4 million units in March 2011. In the first quarter of 2011, the total production volume was 46.3 million units, a decrease of 12% from the fourth quarter of 2010.

As the European market is more sluggish than the domestic market, the joint venture brand has significantly reduced its price in the fourth quarter of 2010 in order to alleviate the inventory pressure, with a general decline of more than 20%, and a related person of a joint venture brand said in an interview with the media that “TV brand” Businesses are gradually increasing TV production outsourcing to OEM/ODM manufacturers. In order to reduce product costs and increase market response speed, this year will increase the proportion of OEMs."

● Consumers 2011 may not necessarily buy the "account" of 3D TV

For the urban market, the traditional meaning of LCD LCD TVs has become less and less attractive to consumers. To break through the bottleneck of sales, more drugs rely on new products like LED or 3D TV, but the author Gome learned that during the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival in 2011, the sales of 3D TVs were not optimistic, accounting for only about 10% of the total TV sales, and mainly concentrated during the promotion period of the promotion, the sales on weekdays were far less than ordinary. LCD TV products.

The author randomly interviewed the sales staff and consumers in Gome. The promoters said that 3D TV is really a big hit. There are many consumers who come to watch and experience, but there are not many consumers who choose to buy it. The main reason is that the price of 3D TV is better. High, and the source is really small. Some consumers believe that the current 3D TV technology is still immature, the relevant standards are not perfect, and a small number of consumers will experience dizziness after watching 3D content for a long time. It can be seen that it is more difficult for manufacturers to make a difference in 3D TV in 2011.

● Home appliances to the countryside overdraft third- and fourth-level market demand

In 2009 and 2010, the state vigorously developed home appliances to the countryside, and the flat-panel TV penetration rate in the rural market increased significantly. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2010, the cumulative sales of home appliances to the countryside reached 77.18 million units, achieving sales of 173.2 billion yuan, respectively. The increase was 1.3 times and 1.7 times. However, in 2011, the perspective of home appliances going to the countryside is expected to slow down, which means that the third- and fourth-tier markets, which are the “strong backing” of China’s flat-panel TV industry in the past two years, may no longer be a boost to the continued development of the TV market in 2011. Device. In particular, the launch of LED TVs and 3D TVs in the second half of 2010 has already reflected the decline in the attractiveness of home appliances to the rural market, and manufacturers have to come up with more high-end products to stimulate purchase.

On the other hand, due to the saturation of home flat-panel TVs in the urban market, and the gradual retreat of the marriage tide after the “80”, the demand has also been greatly reduced. In order to adjust the speed of upgrading appliances faster, last year, the old-fashioned trade-in was vigorously promoted. The policy has achieved certain results. The survey report of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that the sales of the old-fashioned home appliance market has made new breakthroughs. In 2010, the sales volume and recycling volume of home appliance replacements exceeded 30 million units, more than double the previous year.

● There are many variables in the industrial chain

Yang Dongwen, executive vice president of Skyworth Group, said in a reporter that the color TV industry's own characteristics - the industry chain is very long, leading to a balance between supply and demand, the industry's forecast for future markets may be biased. "In 2010, LED-backlit LCD TVs accounted for only 20% of the Chinese market, and sales were far from expected. The reason is that LED chips are not available enough. Such a small component has affected the transformation of the entire color TV industry chain." In the industrial chain, upstream and downstream resources will greatly restrict products.

As we all know, since last year, international raw material prices have risen and risen again. In particular, the prices of metal raw materials commonly used in home appliances have been rising. They have also affected the price fluctuations of LCD panels. Experts expect that the global raw material market prices will remain high in 2011. Operation, this will inevitably affect the price of the final product. It can be imagined that if there is no downside in product prices in the case of weak overall demand, the market response will turn to bleak.

● Postscript:

In summary, after experiencing the “golden three-year” of flat-panel TVs, China’s flat-panel TV industry may have a “painful period” in 2011, especially in the context of the collective price cuts of flat-panel TVs in the third and fourth quarters of last year. There is still no good performance, which is a blow to the morale of the whole industry. Coupled with the weakening of urban and rural market demand and fierce market competition, it is difficult for us to give optimistic expectations to the flat TV market in China. Seen, 2011 is the first year of China's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The state is vigorously developing energy-saving and innovative products. As a major household appliance, TV will receive more preferential policies to stimulate its technological upgrading and industrial restructuring. Or, after the adjustment in 2011, it will usher in a more brilliant tomorrow.

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